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IPOs Still Quiet Amid Broader Market Turmoil

There were few signs of life in the IPO market in the first half of June. No companies went public between May 28 and June 17, one of several times this year the IPO market has seen multi-week stretches without a deal. Turmoil in the world's markets has kept many potential issuers on the sidelines this year. By June 15th last year, 124 companies had gone public. In 2008, only 38 issuers have completed deals through that date.

Blank check companies continue to dominate the IPO market, although the number of blank check registrants has slowed considerably in the past few months. So far this year, one-third of the completed offerings (13 of 38) have been by blank checks. No other SIC code can claim more than two 2008 IPOs as we near the halfway point in the year.

The bright spot of the IPO market this year was Visa's March 18 offering, the largest U.S. IPO in history. The company raised $17.8 billion through the sale of common shares. Since debuting at $44, Visa's shares have risen 91.5% to $84.27 per share.

The performance of other companies that managed to go public in the turbulent market has been mixed. Of the 16 SIC codes other than blank checks represented in this year's IPO market, half are now trading below their offering price on a cumulative basis. Looking back one year to June 15, 2007, of the 11 non-blank check SIC codes that had three or more IPOs over that span, six have lost value on an aggregate basis.

Setting aside blank check offerings, SIC 1311 --Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas leads all SIC classifications over the past 12 months, cumulatively up by two-thirds of their initial offer value (+66.8%). Only three industries have managed to exceed the traditional +15% post-IPO boost in the aftermarket (SIC 1311, SIC 7389 Services-Business Services, and SIC 8090 Services-Misc. Health & Allied Services).

The lead manager with the best performing IPOs over the past 12 months is Banc of America Securities, whose issuers have risen just over 70%. The percentage was arrived at by adding the offer price of each Banc of America IPO share and comparing that to the current trading close. On that basis, U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray's four IPOs for that period are up 60%, placing it second behind Banc of America. The third place manager, William Blair, led four IPOs that have risen 20% on a cumulative basis.

Banc of America rose to the top of IPO lead managers over the past 12 months with the help of two energy companies --Concho Resources and SandRidge Energy. Concho started trading August 3, 2007 and had risen 246.9% through June 17, 2008. In the same timeframe, SandRidge's shares climbed 149.4%. Only one of Banc of America's six IPOs over the past twelve months lost value as of June 17th. Cardtronics, which went public in December, was down 17%.

Masimo, which develops non-invasive patient monitoring systems, was the top performing IPO led by U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. The company helped U.S. Bancorp to its second place finish by gaining 101.8% from its August 7, 2007 IPO date through June 17th. The manager also led American Public Education, whose value has nearly doubled since the company began trading in November. Masimo and American Public Education helped to offset the 46.6% loss by BioForm Medical, another issuer for which U.S. Bancorp served as lead manager.

Credit Suisse was first lead manager on more IPOs than any other firm between June 15, 2007 and June 15, 2008. The underwriter led 33 deals, one more than Morgan Stanley. On an aggregate basis, Credit Suisse's 33 IPOs lost 2% of their value as of June 17th. The best performer was VisionChina Media (+128.8%) and the worst was Agria (-61.6%). As of June 17th, 18 of Credit Suisse's 33 IPOs had fallen below their initial offering price.

Morgan Stanley led the offerings of two issuers whose shares have more than doubled in value since their debuts. Intrepid Potash went public in April and its shares are up 101.3%, while the shares of MSCI have risen 100.9% since they started trading in November. At -58.3%, Orbitz Worldwide is Morgan Stanley's worst performing issuer of the past 12 months. Half of Morgan Stanley's IPO companies since June 15, 2007 have lost value in aftermarket trading.

Overall, the performance of the IPOs of the top lead managers over the past year has been positive. Of the 16 firms that led at least three IPOs between June 15, 2007 and June 15, 2008, ten are firmly on the plus side of aftermarket performance. Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and UBS are within one percentage point of breaking even, leaving just three lead managers of the top 16 whose shares are down from their offer price on a cumulative basis.